Adaptive Volatility-Regime Based Execution & Risk Framework
Python • HMM • CVaRBuilt 3-state Hidden Markov Model with HAR-RV-J forecasting decomposing realized variance into diffusion/jump components. Integrated Lee-Mykland jump detection and Hawkes flash crash modeling. Optimized VWAP/TWAP execution sizing with regime-dependent CVaR constraints, achieving Sortino 2.41 (vs Sharpe 1.57) on 252-day regime-switching synthetic data.